This week we explore the critical juncture now unfolding in U.S.-Cuba relations, as articulated in an incisive new essay for Foreign Affairs, co-written by University of Miami Professor Michael Bustamante and CSG Executive Director Ricardo Herrero.

As Cuba’s economy collapses under Havana’s mismanagement and Washington’s sanctions, the Trump administration has not-so-quietly signaled it would accept an economic and security opening rather than demand the regime’s complete overthrow. But Havana has largely rejected the offer, betting it can buy time while hoping U.S. attention turns elsewhere. That gamble is running out of time. The window for a negotiated deal—one that could stabilize Cuba’s economy and avert military intervention—is closing fast.

As the authors argue, the challenge is not simply one of Washington’s choices. Cuba’s fragmented leadership, each faction protecting its own interests, has made any serious negotiation exceedingly difficult. The military-controlled conglomerate GAESA wants to preserve its economic grip. The security services want to keep ties with Russia and China. The Communist Party fears losing legitimacy. And the aging leadership itself sees any opening as an existential threat. Yet the longer Havana resists, the more likely the economic spiral becomes irreversible—and the more likely Washington becomes willing to intervene by force.

In the essay, Bustamante and Herrero examine what a realistic deal might look like, why Cuba’s leaders resist it, and what’s at stake if negotiations fail. We also cover a recent interview with CSG Chairman Carlos Saladrigas, in which he shares his vision for economic stabilization, transformation, and renewal.