This article examines the Cuban crisis as the result of decades of accumulated structural deterioration rather than a temporary or isolated difficulty. Drawing on economic and social indicators as well as regional comparisons, it analyzes the weakening of the country’s productive base, the impact of the energy crisis, institutional decline, and the growing demographic and social pressures shaping any potential recovery process.

The paper also explores what the priorities of a future transformation in Cuba should be, ranging from economic stabilization and the recovery of strategic sectors to social protection and institutional reconstruction. In addition, it reviews lessons from comparable international experiences and assesses the advantages Cuba still retains —human capital, its diaspora, and geographic position— as potential foundations for a long-term recovery.